The index rises when economic data exceeds Bloomberg consensus estimates and falls when data is below forecasts. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, or CESI, tracks how the economic data fare compared with expectations. A sea-change in that thinking could be approaching as value-heavy European indices have gotten some attention with the improvement from value, but a firm, constructive view of European equities may still be some ways off. We believe the improving COVID-19 trends in Europe could be particularly sticky as vaccine distribution becomes more widespread.įor several years now, being underweight European equities, relative to the U.S., has been a winning trade. equity markets, and has caused us to improve our outlook for developed non-U.S.

This improvement has helped to steady the foundation in many non-U.S.

Driven by some improving COVID-19 trends, the economic backdrop has improved overseas, while high economic expectations have proved to be a more formidable hurdle here in the U.S. In terms of whether economic data is either beating or missing economists’ forecasts, it appears conditions may now be a bit better overseas.

Global citi surprise index